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Definitive Analysis

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New Dazheng Property Group Co., Ltd. (002968.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.73 - $18.26$12.34
Multi-Stage$12.64 - $13.86$13.24
Blended Fair Value$12.79
Current Price$11.67
Upside9.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.84%0.00%0.290.310.360.260.200.240.190.130.390.06
YoY Growth---5.83%-15.31%37.62%33.06%-17.33%27.88%40.05%-65.92%541.99%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.10%3.04%1.60%1.02%0.60%1.17%1.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.1213.828.29
Cash Retained (M)45.0345.0345.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.12-13.82-8.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.9131.2136.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)224.99224.99224.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.84%2.84%3.84%
Fair Value$8.73$12.34$18.26
Upside / Downside-25.16%5.72%56.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.59113.73116.96120.28123.70127.21131.03
Payout Ratio59.28%65.43%71.57%77.71%83.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.5674.4183.7193.48103.73114.49121.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate1.84%2.84%3.84%
Year 1 PV (M)69.2469.9270.60
Year 2 PV (M)72.4873.9175.35
Year 3 PV (M)75.3177.5579.83
Year 4 PV (M)77.7680.8684.05
Year 5 PV (M)79.8683.8688.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,468.522,592.132,720.63
Equity Value (M)2,843.172,978.223,118.48
Shares Outstanding (M)224.99224.99224.99
Fair Value$12.64$13.24$13.86
Upside / Downside8.28%13.43%18.77%

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