Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Lucky Harvest Co., Ltd. (002965.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$191.39 - $225.50$211.32
Multi-Stage$54.80 - $60.05$57.38
Blended Fair Value$134.35
Current Price$45.49
Upside195.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS131.13%87.06%0.560.360.100.240.210.010.010.160.000.21
YoY Growth--54.13%278.61%-59.59%11.32%2,412.73%29.61%-95.78%0.00%-100.00%19,137.45%
Dividend Yield--1.41%1.25%0.23%1.31%0.78%0.03%0.03%0.71%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)248.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.7731.1118.66
Cash Retained (M)139.45139.45139.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.77-31.11-18.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.68108.35120.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.47219.47219.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.490.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.490.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.910.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate5.16%5.16%5.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$191.39$211.32$225.50
Upside / Downside320.74%364.55%395.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)248.85265.03282.26300.60320.14340.95351.18
Payout Ratio43.96%53.17%62.38%71.58%80.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.40140.91176.06215.18258.65306.86324.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.16%5.16%5.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)132.73133.99135.25
Year 2 PV (M)156.22159.19162.20
Year 3 PV (M)179.85185.01190.27
Year 4 PV (M)203.63211.46219.51
Year 5 PV (M)227.56238.55249.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,127.3511,664.8112,222.83
Equity Value (M)12,027.3412,593.0213,180.03
Shares Outstanding (M)219.47219.47219.47
Fair Value$54.80$57.38$60.05
Upside / Downside20.47%26.13%32.01%

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