DDM Analysis: 002881.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.04 - $43.31	$23.57
Multi-Stage	$10.09 - $11.03	$10.55
Blended Fair Value	$17.06
Current Price	$48.99
Upside	-65.17%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	28.81%	33.60%	0.10	0.12	0.14	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-17.89%	-14.50%	257.23%	106.41%	-31.51%	-44.88%	428.32%	30.26%	-8.71%	47.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.21%	0.50%	0.43%	0.15%	0.15%	0.18%	0.29%	0.07%	0.13%	0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	157.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	42.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	115.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.48	19.67	11.80
Cash Retained (M)	115.23	115.23	115.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.48	-19.67	-11.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	83.76	95.56	103.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	260.90	260.90	260.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.37	0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.37	0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.48	0.53	0.56
WACC / Discount Rate	8.89%	8.89%	8.89%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$15.04	$23.57	$43.31
Upside / Downside	-69.30%	-51.89%	-11.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	157.39	167.62	178.51	190.11	202.47	215.63	222.10
Payout Ratio	26.78%	39.43%	52.07%	64.71%	77.36%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	42.15	66.08	92.95	123.03	156.62	194.07	205.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.89%	8.89%	8.89%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	60.12	60.69	61.26
Year 2 PV (M)	76.93	78.40	79.88
Year 3 PV (M)	92.64	95.30	98.01
Year 4 PV (M)	107.30	111.43	115.67
Year 5 PV (M)	120.96	126.80	132.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,175.74	2,280.83	2,389.94
Equity Value (M)	2,633.70	2,753.45	2,877.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	260.90	260.90	260.90
Fair Value	$10.09	$10.55	$11.03
Upside / Downside	-79.39%	-78.46%	-77.49%

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MeiG Smart Technology Co., Ltd (002881.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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