Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.,Ltd. (002838.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.21 - $60.97$21.82
Multi-Stage$7.45 - $8.14$7.79
Blended Fair Value$14.81
Current Price$27.78
Upside-46.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.57%22.29%0.100.090.080.190.350.100.070.050.010.00
YoY Growth--7.80%8.78%-57.63%-44.06%249.67%45.37%49.02%421.04%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.80%0.49%1.13%1.68%0.26%0.52%0.31%0.06%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)107.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6621.6613.00
Cash Retained (M)107.64107.64107.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.66-21.66-13.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.9885.9894.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)457.43457.43457.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.21$21.82$60.97
Upside / Downside-56.03%-21.44%119.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.31184.58196.57209.35222.96237.45244.58
Payout Ratio37.89%48.31%58.73%69.16%79.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.6789.17115.46144.78177.43213.71226.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.7082.4883.25
Year 2 PV (M)96.9298.77100.63
Year 3 PV (M)111.36114.55117.81
Year 4 PV (M)125.04129.85134.79
Year 5 PV (M)137.99144.65151.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,854.242,992.103,135.24
Equity Value (M)3,407.253,562.403,723.30
Shares Outstanding (M)457.43457.43457.43
Fair Value$7.45$7.79$8.14
Upside / Downside-73.19%-71.97%-70.70%

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