Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai NAR Industrial Co., Ltd (002825.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.60 - $26.26$15.86
Multi-Stage$7.43 - $8.12$7.77
Blended Fair Value$11.82
Current Price$9.73
Upside21.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.94%8.60%0.150.220.130.210.090.040.030.060.000.06
YoY Growth---31.54%70.35%-36.40%138.27%109.63%39.72%-50.05%0.00%-100.00%-17.38%
Dividend Yield--1.82%2.98%1.36%2.22%1.15%0.56%0.34%0.68%0.00%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.5720.3512.21
Cash Retained (M)118.56118.56118.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.57-20.35-12.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.9998.20106.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.77339.77339.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.60$15.86$26.26
Upside / Downside8.97%63.05%169.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.84173.42184.70196.70209.49223.10229.80
Payout Ratio27.19%39.75%52.32%64.88%77.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2868.9496.63127.61162.22200.79212.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.32%9.32%9.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)62.4863.0763.66
Year 2 PV (M)79.3580.8682.39
Year 3 PV (M)94.9797.69100.47
Year 4 PV (M)109.40113.60117.93
Year 5 PV (M)122.71128.63134.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,056.932,156.282,259.43
Equity Value (M)2,525.822,640.132,758.66
Shares Outstanding (M)339.77339.77339.77
Fair Value$7.43$7.77$8.12
Upside / Downside-23.60%-20.14%-16.56%

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