Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Weiguang Electronic Co.,Ltd. (002801.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.58 - $243.39$228.09
Multi-Stage$147.35 - $161.72$154.40
Blended Fair Value$191.25
Current Price$36.17
Upside428.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.95%23.99%0.300.500.500.400.150.160.260.080.050.04
YoY Growth---40.53%0.00%25.00%160.00%-4.87%-38.51%241.90%50.00%33.33%11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.73%2.15%1.96%1.74%0.63%0.97%1.85%0.48%0.19%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)279.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.8634.9120.95
Cash Retained (M)199.62199.62199.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.86-34.91-20.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)143.77164.71178.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)228.20228.20228.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.720.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.720.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate1.31%1.31%1.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$206.58$228.09$243.39
Upside / Downside471.15%530.61%572.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)279.28297.43316.76337.35359.28382.64394.11
Payout Ratio28.52%40.82%53.11%65.41%77.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.66121.41168.24220.66279.18344.37364.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.31%1.31%1.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)118.70119.83120.95
Year 2 PV (M)160.84163.91167.00
Year 3 PV (M)206.26212.18218.21
Year 4 PV (M)255.15264.96275.06
Year 5 PV (M)307.73322.60338.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,577.0034,150.4835,784.18
Equity Value (M)33,625.6935,233.9636,903.43
Shares Outstanding (M)228.20228.20228.20
Fair Value$147.35$154.40$161.72
Upside / Downside307.39%326.87%347.10%

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