Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First Capital Securities Co., Ltd. (002797.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - ConglomeratesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.36 - $50.24$47.09
Multi-Stage$8.07 - $8.83$8.44
Blended Fair Value$27.76
Current Price$7.83
Upside254.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.26%10.95%0.100.130.120.110.110.100.100.100.100.06
YoY Growth---22.69%9.80%1.31%0.51%17.18%1.29%-3.21%-5.04%67.90%78.48%
Dividend Yield--1.32%2.32%1.94%1.95%1.48%1.41%1.18%1.23%0.59%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,033.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)397.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)635.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)206.64129.1577.49
Cash Retained (M)635.33635.33635.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-206.64-129.15-77.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)428.69506.18557.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,089.654,089.654,089.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.36$47.09$50.24
Upside / Downside274.91%501.35%541.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,033.201,100.361,171.881,248.061,329.181,415.581,458.04
Payout Ratio38.51%48.81%59.11%69.40%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)397.87537.05692.64866.191,059.381,274.021,348.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)500.83505.57510.32
Year 2 PV (M)602.35613.83625.41
Year 3 PV (M)702.47722.63743.18
Year 4 PV (M)801.19832.00863.69
Year 5 PV (M)898.52941.92986.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,481.6330,905.6032,384.08
Equity Value (M)32,986.9934,521.5636,113.66
Shares Outstanding (M)4,089.654,089.654,089.65
Fair Value$8.07$8.44$8.83
Upside / Downside3.01%7.81%12.78%

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