Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangxi Selon Industrial Co., Ltd. (002748.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.06 - $3.42$2.66
Multi-Stage$4.30 - $4.72$4.51
Blended Fair Value$3.58
Current Price$9.84
Upside-63.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.60%-4.00%0.150.060.060.100.170.150.220.150.040.10
YoY Growth--160.93%-8.75%-33.88%-41.87%12.58%-32.70%43.00%282.14%-59.36%-56.81%
Dividend Yield--2.00%0.69%0.58%0.76%3.13%2.14%2.47%1.20%0.18%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.625.393.23
Cash Retained (M)4.704.704.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.62-5.39-3.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.92-0.681.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)240.04240.04240.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Fair Value$2.06$2.66$3.42
Upside / Downside-79.06%-72.97%-65.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.1143.2943.4743.6643.8444.0345.35
Payout Ratio89.09%89.27%89.45%89.64%89.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.4038.6538.8939.1339.3839.6241.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-0.58%0.42%1.42%
Year 1 PV (M)35.9736.3436.70
Year 2 PV (M)33.7034.3835.07
Year 3 PV (M)31.5732.5333.51
Year 4 PV (M)29.5730.7832.02
Year 5 PV (M)27.7029.1230.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)874.14918.99965.67
Equity Value (M)1,032.651,082.131,133.57
Shares Outstanding (M)240.04240.04240.04
Fair Value$4.30$4.51$4.72
Upside / Downside-56.28%-54.19%-52.01%

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