Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Longquan Pipeline Engineering Co.,LTD (002671.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.20 - $1.70$1.45
Multi-Stage$2.03 - $2.23$2.13
Blended Fair Value$1.79
Current Price$4.87
Upside-63.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.16%-10.87%0.040.040.050.040.040.040.070.070.060.12
YoY Growth---8.21%-11.35%30.38%-2.33%-13.48%-41.42%0.40%14.20%-46.35%-2.07%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.91%1.08%0.64%0.89%0.96%1.32%1.18%0.60%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6213.518.11
Cash Retained (M)89.6789.6789.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.62-13.51-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.0576.1681.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)564.55564.55564.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate-3.21%-2.21%-1.21%
Fair Value$1.20$1.45$1.70
Upside / Downside-75.28%-70.27%-65.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.12105.73103.40101.1198.8896.7099.60
Payout Ratio17.06%31.65%46.24%60.82%75.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4533.4647.8161.5074.5787.0392.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate-3.21%-2.21%-1.21%
Year 1 PV (M)30.3630.6730.98
Year 2 PV (M)39.3440.1640.98
Year 3 PV (M)45.9147.3548.81
Year 4 PV (M)50.4952.6154.80
Year 5 PV (M)53.4656.2859.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)926.10974.941,025.82
Equity Value (M)1,145.661,202.001,260.61
Shares Outstanding (M)564.55564.55564.55
Fair Value$2.03$2.13$2.23
Upside / Downside-58.33%-56.28%-54.15%

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