DDM Analysis: 002646.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.09 - $0.13	$0.11
Multi-Stage	$0.14 - $0.16	$0.15
Blended Fair Value	$0.13
Current Price	$9.63
Upside	-98.66%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.67%	-5.20%	0.17	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	0.12	0.07	0.16	0.18	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	161.99%	9.80%	630.82%	-78.91%	-68.86%	81.90%	-59.68%	-6.63%	-37.24%	-1.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.84%	0.56%	0.37%	0.05%	0.29%	1.31%	0.49%	1.28%	0.88%	1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.30	0.81	0.49
Cash Retained (M)	4.54	4.54	4.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.30	-0.81	-0.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.23	3.72	4.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	474.39	474.39	474.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.01	0.01	0.01
WACC / Discount Rate	9.74%	9.74%	9.74%
Growth Rate	-1.98%	-0.98%	0.02%
Fair Value	$0.09	$0.11	$0.13
Upside / Downside	-99.05%	-98.85%	-98.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6.50	6.44	6.37	6.31	6.25	6.19	6.37
Payout Ratio	30.24%	42.19%	54.14%	66.10%	78.05%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.97	2.72	3.45	4.17	4.88	5.57	5.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.74%	9.74%	9.74%
Growth Rate	-1.98%	-0.98%	0.02%
Year 1 PV (M)	2.45	2.47	2.50
Year 2 PV (M)	2.81	2.87	2.92
Year 3 PV (M)	3.06	3.16	3.25
Year 4 PV (M)	3.23	3.36	3.50
Year 5 PV (M)	3.33	3.50	3.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)	52.19	54.91	57.74
Equity Value (M)	67.06	70.26	73.59
Shares Outstanding (M)	474.39	474.39	474.39
Fair Value	$0.14	$0.15	$0.16
Upside / Downside	-98.53%	-98.46%	-98.39%

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Qinghai Huzhu TianYouDe Highland Barley Spirit Co., Ltd. (002646.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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