Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Daoming Optics&Chemical Co.,Ltd (002632.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.68 - $11.67$7.97
Multi-Stage$9.34 - $10.27$9.80
Blended Fair Value$8.88
Current Price$10.88
Upside-18.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.30%44.16%0.430.450.050.000.180.370.060.040.020.01
YoY Growth---4.28%799.22%2,762.98%-99.01%-51.85%520.48%64.75%50.12%114.71%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.92%5.13%0.67%0.03%2.83%4.78%0.66%0.42%0.24%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)205.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)124.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.1025.6915.41
Cash Retained (M)124.16124.16124.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.10-25.69-15.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.0698.47108.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)625.12625.12625.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate5.99%5.99%5.99%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$5.68$7.97$11.67
Upside / Downside-47.80%-26.72%7.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)205.49210.22215.05219.99225.05230.23237.13
Payout Ratio39.58%49.66%59.75%69.83%79.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.33104.40128.49153.63179.85207.21219.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.99%5.99%5.99%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)97.5498.5099.46
Year 2 PV (M)112.15114.37116.62
Year 3 PV (M)125.28129.02132.84
Year 4 PV (M)137.02142.51148.17
Year 5 PV (M)147.48154.91162.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,221.505,484.365,757.71
Equity Value (M)5,840.976,123.686,417.44
Shares Outstanding (M)625.12625.12625.12
Fair Value$9.34$9.80$10.27
Upside / Downside-14.12%-9.96%-5.64%

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