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Definitive Analysis

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Lancy Co., Ltd. (002612.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$236.89 - $466.02$436.73
Multi-Stage$71.42 - $78.23$74.76
Blended Fair Value$255.74
Current Price$17.18
Upside1,388.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.00%1.96%0.550.150.180.390.200.520.440.150.090.06
YoY Growth--259.93%-14.14%-54.55%96.48%-61.91%18.27%184.95%71.43%63.21%-87.75%
Dividend Yield--3.63%0.88%0.73%1.62%0.54%6.37%4.09%1.23%0.54%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,036.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)204.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)831.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)207.33129.5877.75
Cash Retained (M)831.69831.69831.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-207.33-129.58-77.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)624.36702.11753.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)442.40442.40442.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.411.591.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.411.591.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.872.052.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$236.89$436.73$466.02
Upside / Downside1,278.85%2,442.06%2,612.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,036.661,104.041,175.811,252.231,333.631,420.321,462.92
Payout Ratio19.77%33.82%47.86%61.91%75.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)204.97373.36562.78775.241,012.951,278.281,353.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)347.82351.12354.42
Year 2 PV (M)488.42497.72507.11
Year 3 PV (M)626.79644.78663.11
Year 4 PV (M)762.95792.29822.47
Year 5 PV (M)896.94940.26985.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,472.1029,847.3231,275.16
Equity Value (M)31,595.0233,073.4934,607.52
Shares Outstanding (M)442.40442.40442.40
Fair Value$71.42$74.76$78.23
Upside / Downside315.70%335.15%355.34%

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