Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang VIE Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (002590.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.70 - $83.29$78.06
Multi-Stage$57.55 - $63.17$60.30
Blended Fair Value$69.18
Current Price$15.29
Upside352.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.64%-6.38%0.040.120.120.080.120.040.070.050.070.08
YoY Growth---70.05%3.96%56.78%-38.33%176.03%-37.43%33.88%-28.15%-12.04%17.61%
Dividend Yield--0.29%0.90%1.26%0.99%1.96%0.65%0.81%0.47%0.41%0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)211.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.3426.4615.88
Cash Retained (M)170.21170.21170.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.34-26.46-15.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)127.87143.75154.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)505.44505.44505.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate-1.38%-1.38%-1.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.70$78.06$83.29
Upside / Downside362.36%410.50%444.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)211.68225.44240.10255.70272.33290.03298.73
Payout Ratio19.59%33.67%47.76%61.84%75.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.4775.91114.66158.12206.74261.02276.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.38%-1.38%-1.38%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)76.2576.9877.70
Year 2 PV (M)115.69117.89120.12
Year 3 PV (M)160.25164.85169.54
Year 4 PV (M)210.48218.57226.90
Year 5 PV (M)266.93279.82293.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,256.9829,621.8131,038.86
Equity Value (M)29,086.5830,479.9231,926.32
Shares Outstanding (M)505.44505.44505.44
Fair Value$57.55$60.30$63.17
Upside / Downside276.37%294.40%313.12%

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