Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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C&S Paper Co.,Ltd (002511.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.45 - $4.15$3.19
Multi-Stage$2.84 - $3.11$2.97
Blended Fair Value$3.08
Current Price$8.24
Upside-62.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.38%2.24%0.080.060.100.100.080.020.060.040.020.00
YoY Growth--32.69%-36.81%-0.10%31.35%229.50%-60.71%49.85%100.56%520.60%-95.30%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.74%0.82%0.83%0.29%0.14%0.60%0.45%0.27%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)253.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)229.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.7631.7219.03
Cash Retained (M)229.51229.51229.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.76-31.72-19.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.75197.78210.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,295.711,295.711,295.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$2.45$3.19$4.15
Upside / Downside-70.32%-61.31%-49.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)253.78261.90270.29278.94287.87297.08305.99
Payout Ratio9.57%25.65%41.74%57.83%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.2867.18112.82161.30212.77267.37283.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)61.1861.7862.38
Year 2 PV (M)93.5595.3997.25
Year 3 PV (M)121.81125.42129.10
Year 4 PV (M)146.32152.13158.11
Year 5 PV (M)167.44175.79184.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,083.343,237.173,397.08
Equity Value (M)3,673.643,847.684,028.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,295.711,295.711,295.71
Fair Value$2.84$2.97$3.11
Upside / Downside-65.59%-63.96%-62.27%

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