Definitive Analysis
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Shandong Sunway Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (002469.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.39 - $82.79$77.59
Multi-Stage$13.63 - $14.91$14.26
Blended Fair Value$45.92
Current Price$8.76
Upside424.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.83%26.13%0.400.250.250.150.090.080.040.080.080.08
YoY Growth--59.95%0.03%66.67%71.34%12.88%99.08%-49.78%0.01%0.74%96.14%
Dividend Yield--4.93%4.27%4.11%2.52%1.21%1.72%0.79%1.38%0.83%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)270.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)194.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)75.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.0333.7720.26
Cash Retained (M)75.5075.5075.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.03-33.77-20.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.4741.7355.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)648.97648.97648.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.39$77.59$82.79
Upside / Downside463.86%785.68%845.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)270.16287.72306.42326.34347.55370.14381.24
Payout Ratio72.05%75.64%79.23%82.82%86.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)194.66217.64242.78270.28300.32333.12352.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)202.99204.91206.83
Year 2 PV (M)211.19215.22219.28
Year 3 PV (M)219.28225.58231.99
Year 4 PV (M)227.25235.99244.98
Year 5 PV (M)235.11246.46258.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,750.358,124.708,513.37
Equity Value (M)8,846.189,252.869,674.71
Shares Outstanding (M)648.97648.97648.97
Fair Value$13.63$14.26$14.91
Upside / Downside55.61%62.76%70.18%

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