DDM Analysis: 002468.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.32 - $20.57	$15.17
Multi-Stage	$8.74 - $9.54	$9.13
Blended Fair Value	$12.15
Current Price	$17.90
Upside	-32.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-27.53%	19.75%	0.11	0.08	0.13	0.10	0.14	0.54	0.20	0.10	0.48	0.53
YoY Growth	-	-	27.66%	-33.65%	31.60%	-32.99%	-73.24%	162.92%	98.20%	-78.53%	-9.65%	2,901.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.91%	0.98%	1.14%	1.30%	1.56%	3.07%	0.82%	0.42%	1.69%	1.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,143.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	172.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	970.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	228.63	142.89	85.74
Cash Retained (M)	970.35	970.35	970.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-228.63	-142.89	-85.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	741.73	827.46	884.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,498.86	1,498.86	1,498.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.49	0.55	0.59
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.49	0.55	0.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.61	0.67	0.71
WACC / Discount Rate	11.19%	11.19%	11.19%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$11.32	$15.17	$20.57
Upside / Downside	-36.76%	-15.27%	14.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,143.14	1,217.44	1,296.57	1,380.85	1,470.61	1,566.20	1,613.18
Payout Ratio	15.11%	30.09%	45.07%	60.05%	75.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	172.78	366.35	584.35	829.14	1,103.29	1,409.58	1,492.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	11.19%	11.19%	11.19%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	326.40	329.49	332.59
Year 2 PV (M)	463.85	472.69	481.60
Year 3 PV (M)	586.39	603.22	620.38
Year 4 PV (M)	695.18	721.92	749.42
Year 5 PV (M)	791.32	829.54	869.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,233.22	10,727.49	11,240.68
Equity Value (M)	13,096.36	13,684.35	14,293.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,498.86	1,498.86	1,498.86
Fair Value	$8.74	$9.13	$9.54
Upside / Downside	-51.19%	-49.00%	-46.72%

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STO Express Co., Ltd. (002468.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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