Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co., Ltd (002444.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.51 - $420.13$162.07
Multi-Stage$44.26 - $48.44$46.31
Blended Fair Value$104.19
Current Price$30.77
Upside238.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.14%22.70%0.660.400.060.040.040.170.020.090.090.17
YoY Growth--62.83%573.71%35.23%22.19%-78.61%799.67%-79.09%0.00%-46.98%100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.22%1.52%0.32%0.27%0.10%1.81%0.15%0.77%0.52%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,523.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)307.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,215.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)504.67315.42189.25
Cash Retained (M)2,215.532,215.532,215.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-504.67-315.42-189.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,710.861,900.112,026.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,194.481,194.481,194.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.431.591.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.431.591.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.691.851.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.51$162.07$420.13
Upside / Downside161.64%426.71%1,265.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,523.352,687.362,862.043,048.083,246.203,457.203,560.92
Payout Ratio12.20%27.76%43.32%58.88%74.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)307.81745.981,239.811,794.692,416.463,111.483,293.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)686.05692.56699.06
Year 2 PV (M)1,048.611,068.581,088.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,395.961,436.031,476.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,728.591,795.071,863.44
Year 5 PV (M)2,046.952,145.822,248.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,961.2448,181.1850,486.09
Equity Value (M)52,867.4055,319.2457,862.67
Shares Outstanding (M)1,194.481,194.481,194.48
Fair Value$44.26$46.31$48.44
Upside / Downside43.84%50.51%57.43%

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