DDM Analysis: 002423.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.25 - $47.76	$20.77
Multi-Stage	$7.70 - $8.42	$8.05
Blended Fair Value	$14.41
Current Price	$13.39
Upside	7.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	45.61%	74.60%	0.27	0.27	0.35	0.25	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.36%	-23.51%	37.79%	804.64%	-31.11%	27.10%	30.86%	62.78%	13.91%	1,204.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.14%	3.49%	4.88%	3.15%	0.32%	0.46%	0.28%	0.17%	0.11%	0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	957.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	272.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)	685.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	191.60	119.75	71.85
Cash Retained (M)	685.38	685.38	685.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-191.60	-119.75	-71.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	493.79	565.64	613.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,303.96	2,303.96	2,303.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.27
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.21	0.25	0.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.36	0.38
WACC / Discount Rate	8.37%	8.37%	8.37%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.25	$20.77	$47.76
Upside / Downside	-8.54%	55.10%	256.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	957.98	1,020.24	1,086.56	1,157.19	1,232.40	1,312.51	1,351.88
Payout Ratio	28.45%	40.76%	53.07%	65.38%	77.69%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	272.59	415.89	576.67	756.59	957.47	1,181.26	1,250.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.37%	8.37%	8.37%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	380.18	383.78	387.39
Year 2 PV (M)	481.89	491.07	500.33
Year 3 PV (M)	577.96	594.55	611.45
Year 4 PV (M)	668.60	694.31	720.76
Year 5 PV (M)	754.05	790.47	828.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)	14,876.88	15,595.44	16,341.50
Equity Value (M)	17,739.56	18,549.62	19,389.72
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,303.96	2,303.96	2,303.96
Fair Value	$7.70	$8.05	$8.42
Upside / Downside	-42.50%	-39.87%	-37.15%

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COFCO Capital Holdings Co., Ltd. (002423.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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