Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Zhongheng Electric Co., Ltd (002364.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.87 - $2.95$2.36
Multi-Stage$2.25 - $2.46$2.35
Blended Fair Value$2.36
Current Price$28.27
Upside-91.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.68%0.79%0.050.000.110.110.130.100.110.110.040.02
YoY Growth--2,534.24%-98.19%-2.83%-8.86%20.35%-1.31%0.00%147.55%128.07%-61.77%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.03%1.42%1.29%1.38%0.83%0.89%1.00%0.24%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.2412.037.22
Cash Retained (M)40.0140.0140.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.24-12.03-7.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.7727.9832.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)533.33533.33533.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Fair Value$1.87$2.36$2.95
Upside / Downside-93.39%-91.64%-89.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.2299.20102.28105.45108.72112.09115.45
Payout Ratio58.42%64.73%71.05%77.37%83.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.2164.2272.6781.5890.98100.88106.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate2.10%3.10%4.10%
Year 1 PV (M)57.8258.3958.96
Year 2 PV (M)58.9260.0861.25
Year 3 PV (M)59.5561.3263.12
Year 4 PV (M)59.8062.1864.62
Year 5 PV (M)59.7062.6865.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)905.02950.22997.20
Equity Value (M)1,200.821,254.871,310.94
Shares Outstanding (M)533.33533.33533.33
Fair Value$2.25$2.35$2.46
Upside / Downside-92.04%-91.68%-91.31%

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