Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Zhezhong Group Co.,Ltd (002346.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.34 - $265.49$248.81
Multi-Stage$36.87 - $40.38$38.60
Blended Fair Value$143.70
Current Price$18.24
Upside687.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.97%19.57%0.250.200.200.210.210.210.210.100.110.01
YoY Growth--23.10%-0.81%-0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%-8.55%1,339.60%-81.33%
Dividend Yield--2.15%2.03%1.52%1.51%1.99%2.00%1.29%0.53%0.27%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)467.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.6071.6242.97
Cash Retained (M)467.10467.10467.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.60-71.62-42.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)352.51395.48424.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)429.21429.21429.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.920.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.920.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.34$248.81$265.49
Upside / Downside433.64%1,264.07%1,355.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.98610.23649.89692.13737.12785.04808.59
Payout Ratio18.48%32.78%47.09%61.39%75.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.88200.05306.02424.91557.97706.53747.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)185.80187.56189.32
Year 2 PV (M)263.98269.01274.08
Year 3 PV (M)340.43350.21360.16
Year 4 PV (M)415.20431.17447.59
Year 5 PV (M)488.30511.89536.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,132.9314,815.5615,524.31
Equity Value (M)15,826.6516,565.3917,331.85
Shares Outstanding (M)429.21429.21429.21
Fair Value$36.87$38.60$40.38
Upside / Downside102.16%111.60%121.39%

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