Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Join-Cheer Software Co., Ltd. (002279.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.64 - $1.08$0.83
Multi-Stage$0.62 - $0.67$0.64
Blended Fair Value$0.74
Current Price$6.73
Upside-89.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-85.19%-62.92%0.000.000.020.020.020.030.050.020.030.02
YoY Growth---95.68%-99.74%-33.28%36.92%-30.72%-47.41%110.11%-18.52%18.35%-35.19%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.19%0.45%0.38%0.42%0.52%0.18%0.20%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.715.443.27
Cash Retained (M)43.5443.5443.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.71-5.44-3.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.8338.1040.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)861.44861.44861.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Fair Value$0.64$0.83$1.08
Upside / Downside-90.55%-87.69%-83.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.5545.4747.4849.5751.7654.0455.66
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.008.1917.0926.7737.2748.6451.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Year 1 PV (M)7.377.447.51
Year 2 PV (M)13.8614.1314.40
Year 3 PV (M)19.5520.1220.70
Year 4 PV (M)24.5025.4626.45
Year 5 PV (M)28.8030.2231.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)436.17457.67480.01
Equity Value (M)530.25555.04580.77
Shares Outstanding (M)861.44861.44861.44
Fair Value$0.62$0.64$0.67
Upside / Downside-90.85%-90.43%-89.98%

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