Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongshan Broad-Ocean Motor Co., Ltd. (002249.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.91 - $87.81$82.29
Multi-Stage$12.86 - $14.07$13.45
Blended Fair Value$47.87
Current Price$11.52
Upside315.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.53%9.85%0.190.160.170.190.010.040.160.110.120.18
YoY Growth--18.04%-7.26%-5.54%1,268.45%-65.23%-74.93%35.96%-5.93%-33.11%142.55%
Dividend Yield--2.68%3.13%3.34%3.05%0.30%1.17%2.77%1.78%1.48%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,061.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)470.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)591.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.31132.6979.62
Cash Retained (M)591.44591.44591.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.31-132.69-79.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)379.13458.74511.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,404.352,404.352,404.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.91$82.29$87.81
Upside / Downside211.73%614.29%662.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,061.551,130.551,204.031,282.291,365.641,454.411,498.04
Payout Ratio44.29%53.43%62.57%71.71%80.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)470.11604.03753.38919.591,104.221,308.971,385.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)561.64566.97572.29
Year 2 PV (M)651.35663.75676.28
Year 3 PV (M)739.25760.47782.10
Year 4 PV (M)825.38857.12889.77
Year 5 PV (M)909.76953.70999.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,223.9328,538.8529,904.11
Equity Value (M)30,911.3132,340.8733,823.87
Shares Outstanding (M)2,404.352,404.352,404.35
Fair Value$12.86$13.45$14.07
Upside / Downside11.60%16.76%22.12%

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