Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Goldwind Science&Technology Co., Ltd. (002202.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$105.68 - $124.51$116.68
Multi-Stage$74.70 - $81.97$78.27
Blended Fair Value$97.47
Current Price$14.97
Upside551.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.58%7.49%0.420.460.630.580.410.530.440.340.470.42
YoY Growth---8.16%-27.40%8.18%41.48%-22.48%18.93%32.71%-28.27%10.97%107.11%
Dividend Yield--4.71%5.95%5.69%4.42%2.90%5.57%3.05%2.03%4.16%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,652.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)913.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,739.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)530.54331.59198.95
Cash Retained (M)1,739.151,739.151,739.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-530.54-331.59-198.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,208.611,407.561,540.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,236.684,236.684,236.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Fair Value$105.68$116.68$124.51
Upside / Downside605.93%679.43%731.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,652.712,824.783,008.013,203.133,410.903,632.153,741.12
Payout Ratio34.44%45.55%56.66%67.78%78.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)913.561,286.721,704.442,170.942,690.783,268.943,460.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Year 1 PV (M)1,255.641,267.541,279.45
Year 2 PV (M)1,623.101,654.021,685.24
Year 3 PV (M)2,017.422,075.342,134.35
Year 4 PV (M)2,440.112,533.962,630.50
Year 5 PV (M)2,892.813,032.553,177.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)306,236.38321,029.63336,389.12
Equity Value (M)316,465.46331,593.05347,296.30
Shares Outstanding (M)4,236.684,236.684,236.68
Fair Value$74.70$78.27$81.97
Upside / Downside398.98%422.83%447.59%

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