Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Hanbell Precise Machinery Co., Ltd. (002158.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.93 - $198.21$185.75
Multi-Stage$29.32 - $32.06$30.66
Blended Fair Value$108.21
Current Price$25.72
Upside320.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.35%14.44%0.620.480.400.370.280.180.260.230.130.20
YoY Growth--27.29%21.69%8.81%29.06%54.02%-28.31%11.12%75.52%-35.16%26.88%
Dividend Yield--3.13%2.33%1.57%1.99%1.13%1.57%2.33%1.93%1.24%1.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)532.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.5966.6239.97
Cash Retained (M)212.43212.43212.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.59-66.62-39.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)105.84145.81172.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)534.74534.74534.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.93$185.75$198.21
Upside / Downside214.67%622.22%670.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)532.96567.61604.50643.79685.64730.21752.11
Payout Ratio60.14%66.11%72.08%78.06%84.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.53375.26435.75502.52576.13657.18695.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)348.92352.23355.54
Year 2 PV (M)376.73383.90391.15
Year 3 PV (M)403.96415.55427.37
Year 4 PV (M)430.62447.18464.21
Year 5 PV (M)456.72478.78501.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,660.3514,320.1515,005.21
Equity Value (M)15,677.3016,397.8017,145.15
Shares Outstanding (M)534.74534.74534.74
Fair Value$29.32$30.66$32.06
Upside / Downside13.99%19.23%24.66%

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