Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GRG Banking Equipment Co., Ltd. (002152.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.82 - $69.05$64.71
Multi-Stage$11.02 - $12.06$11.53
Blended Fair Value$38.12
Current Price$13.88
Upside174.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.78%13.65%0.220.210.160.160.120.120.200.070.090.22
YoY Growth--5.54%31.12%1.11%28.57%1.44%-39.69%197.56%-24.37%-59.67%260.00%
Dividend Yield--1.66%1.72%1.30%1.48%1.07%1.40%2.58%0.94%1.04%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)849.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)553.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.83106.1463.68
Cash Retained (M)295.71295.71295.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.83-106.14-63.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.88189.57232.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.552,445.552,445.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.82$64.71$69.05
Upside / Downside165.29%366.22%397.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)849.13904.32963.101,025.701,092.371,163.381,198.28
Payout Ratio65.18%70.14%75.11%80.07%85.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)553.42634.29723.34821.28928.901,047.041,108.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)591.12596.72602.33
Year 2 PV (M)628.22640.19652.27
Year 3 PV (M)664.74683.82703.27
Year 4 PV (M)700.67727.62755.33
Year 5 PV (M)736.03771.58808.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,641.1024,782.9825,968.55
Equity Value (M)26,961.8928,202.9129,490.24
Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.552,445.552,445.55
Fair Value$11.02$11.53$12.06
Upside / Downside-20.57%-16.91%-13.12%

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