Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tungkong Inc. (002117.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.18 - $3.03$2.60
Multi-Stage$6.52 - $7.20$6.85
Blended Fair Value$4.73
Current Price$11.48
Upside-58.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.42%10.46%0.310.230.320.420.420.490.280.210.210.21
YoY Growth--36.75%-27.56%-24.19%0.00%-14.23%75.00%33.33%0.00%-0.01%79.94%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.70%3.22%4.92%5.13%4.46%1.92%1.99%1.04%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)200.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)136.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.1425.0915.05
Cash Retained (M)64.4464.4464.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.14-25.09-15.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.3039.3549.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)524.95524.95524.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-6.67%-5.67%-4.67%
Fair Value$2.18$2.60$3.03
Upside / Downside-81.04%-77.31%-73.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)200.72189.34178.61168.48158.93149.92154.42
Payout Ratio67.89%72.31%76.74%81.16%85.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)136.27136.92137.05136.74136.01134.93142.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-6.67%-5.67%-4.67%
Year 1 PV (M)127.26128.62129.99
Year 2 PV (M)118.40120.95123.53
Year 3 PV (M)109.79113.36117.00
Year 4 PV (M)101.51105.93110.49
Year 5 PV (M)93.6098.72104.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,872.773,030.003,194.05
Equity Value (M)3,423.333,597.593,779.12
Shares Outstanding (M)524.95524.95524.95
Fair Value$6.52$6.85$7.20
Upside / Downside-43.19%-40.30%-37.29%

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