Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd. (002051.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.43 - $2.00$1.71
Multi-Stage$2.43 - $2.68$2.55
Blended Fair Value$2.13
Current Price$8.28
Upside-74.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.01%-1.47%0.170.150.120.020.170.320.380.280.200.22
YoY Growth--11.62%28.44%585.61%-89.85%-47.13%-14.78%36.66%39.05%-9.05%11.04%
Dividend Yield--2.12%2.01%1.12%0.20%2.31%3.92%2.39%1.72%0.85%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.9535.5921.36
Cash Retained (M)231.36231.36231.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.95-35.59-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.41195.77210.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,221.661,221.661,221.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate-3.47%-2.47%-1.47%
Fair Value$1.43$1.71$2.00
Upside / Downside-82.76%-79.30%-75.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.74277.71270.86264.18257.66251.30258.84
Payout Ratio18.75%33.00%47.25%61.50%75.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.3891.64127.98162.47195.17226.17239.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate-3.47%-2.47%-1.47%
Year 1 PV (M)83.1083.9684.83
Year 2 PV (M)105.25107.44109.65
Year 3 PV (M)121.17124.97128.85
Year 4 PV (M)132.00137.56143.29
Year 5 PV (M)138.72146.06153.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,391.742,518.212,649.98
Equity Value (M)2,971.983,118.203,270.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,221.661,221.661,221.66
Fair Value$2.43$2.55$2.68
Upside / Downside-70.62%-69.17%-67.67%

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