Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery Co.,Ltd (001696.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.05 - $143.79$134.75
Multi-Stage$102.59 - $112.59$107.50
Blended Fair Value$121.13
Current Price$24.54
Upside393.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.47%25.90%0.300.290.250.300.300.230.030.030.360.03
YoY Growth--3.97%15.46%-16.67%0.00%30.43%666.67%0.00%-91.67%1,100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.36%3.49%3.39%5.07%4.19%4.17%0.43%0.49%4.16%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)827.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)280.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)547.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)165.57103.4862.09
Cash Retained (M)547.00547.00547.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-165.57-103.48-62.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)381.43443.52484.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,145.001,145.001,145.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.05$134.75$143.79
Upside / Downside397.34%449.12%485.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)827.87881.68938.991,000.031,065.031,134.251,168.28
Payout Ratio33.93%45.14%56.36%67.57%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)280.87398.00529.18675.72839.091,020.831,080.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.97%-1.97%-1.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)402.19406.01409.82
Year 2 PV (M)540.38550.67561.06
Year 3 PV (M)697.29717.31737.71
Year 4 PV (M)874.98908.63943.24
Year 5 PV (M)1,075.711,127.671,181.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)113,875.84119,376.09125,086.84
Equity Value (M)117,466.40123,086.37128,920.28
Shares Outstanding (M)1,145.001,145.001,145.00
Fair Value$102.59$107.50$112.59
Upside / Downside318.05%338.05%358.82%

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