Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Smart Control Co., Ltd. (001266.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.16 - $76.84$71.96
Multi-Stage$38.48 - $42.49$40.45
Blended Fair Value$56.20
Current Price$28.66
Upside96.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS7.00%0.00%0.240.220.440.000.510.170.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.79%-51.22%0.00%-100.00%190.30%452.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.82%1.55%0.00%1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.245.153.09
Cash Retained (M)6.416.416.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.24-5.15-3.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.841.263.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.2499.2499.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate-0.53%-0.53%-0.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$22.16$71.96$76.84
Upside / Downside-22.67%151.09%168.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2240.8140.4040.0039.6039.2040.38
Payout Ratio84.46%85.56%86.67%87.78%88.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.8134.9235.0235.1135.2035.2837.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.53%-0.53%-0.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)34.7535.1035.46
Year 2 PV (M)34.6835.3936.11
Year 3 PV (M)34.6135.6836.77
Year 4 PV (M)34.5235.9637.43
Year 5 PV (M)34.4436.2338.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,645.763,835.614,033.28
Equity Value (M)3,818.764,013.974,217.14
Shares Outstanding (M)99.2499.2499.24
Fair Value$38.48$40.45$42.49
Upside / Downside34.26%41.13%48.27%

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