Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guangdong Jushen Logistics Co., Ltd. (001202.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.39 - $23.26$15.03
Multi-Stage$10.11 - $11.08$10.58
Blended Fair Value$12.81
Current Price$15.53
Upside-17.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.17%0.00%0.310.220.580.020.040.450.160.000.000.00
YoY Growth--43.04%-62.68%3,125.44%-57.22%-90.64%175.57%51,158.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.58%3.89%0.11%0.19%2.07%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.639.155.49
Cash Retained (M)68.5368.5368.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.63-9.15-5.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.9059.3963.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)137.95137.95137.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate3.47%4.47%5.47%
Fair Value$10.39$15.03$23.26
Upside / Downside-33.09%-3.20%49.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.1776.4479.8683.4387.1791.0793.80
Payout Ratio6.34%23.07%39.80%56.53%73.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.6417.6431.7947.1763.8681.9686.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate3.47%4.47%5.47%
Year 1 PV (M)16.2216.3716.53
Year 2 PV (M)26.8827.4027.93
Year 3 PV (M)36.6937.7638.85
Year 4 PV (M)45.6847.4749.31
Year 5 PV (M)53.9156.5759.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,214.611,274.441,336.62
Equity Value (M)1,393.981,460.021,528.57
Shares Outstanding (M)137.95137.95137.95
Fair Value$10.11$10.58$11.08
Upside / Downside-34.93%-31.85%-28.65%

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