Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FSPG Hi-Tech Co. Ltd. (000973.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.72 - $1.01$0.87
Multi-Stage$1.31 - $1.44$1.38
Blended Fair Value$1.12
Current Price$7.82
Upside-85.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.66%11.38%0.090.040.040.030.030.060.030.050.050.12
YoY Growth--104.92%13.16%26.67%0.00%-48.42%93.88%-40.00%0.00%-57.94%296.28%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.01%0.78%0.58%0.74%1.31%0.59%0.94%0.59%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.0715.049.02
Cash Retained (M)70.1470.1470.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.07-15.04-9.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.0855.1061.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)974.41974.41974.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-4.02%-3.02%-2.02%
Fair Value$0.72$0.87$1.01
Upside / Downside-90.74%-88.92%-87.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.33116.70113.18109.76106.45103.24106.34
Payout Ratio41.71%51.37%61.02%70.68%80.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.1959.9469.0777.5885.5292.9298.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-4.02%-3.02%-2.02%
Year 1 PV (M)54.3954.9555.52
Year 2 PV (M)56.8658.0559.25
Year 3 PV (M)57.9559.7861.65
Year 4 PV (M)57.9660.4162.95
Year 5 PV (M)57.1360.1763.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)995.111,048.041,103.20
Equity Value (M)1,279.401,341.411,405.90
Shares Outstanding (M)974.41974.41974.41
Fair Value$1.31$1.38$1.44
Upside / Downside-83.21%-82.40%-81.55%

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