Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Luxi Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (000830.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.03 - $63.06$32.19
Multi-Stage$20.89 - $22.89$21.87
Blended Fair Value$27.03
Current Price$14.52
Upside86.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.19%-0.21%0.310.882.190.750.760.740.640.360.350.55
YoY Growth---65.00%-60.01%191.45%-0.93%2.32%15.13%81.00%1.13%-35.55%74.37%
Dividend Yield--2.54%8.87%16.06%4.20%4.89%9.09%4.06%2.03%6.26%9.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,477.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)844.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)632.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)295.43184.64110.79
Cash Retained (M)632.57632.57632.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-295.43-184.64-110.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.14447.93521.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,906.401,906.401,906.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.29%4.29%5.29%
Fair Value$20.03$32.19$63.06
Upside / Downside37.93%121.67%334.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,477.141,540.501,606.581,675.491,747.361,822.311,876.97
Payout Ratio57.18%63.74%70.31%76.87%83.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)844.57981.931,129.511,287.961,457.911,640.081,736.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.29%4.29%5.29%
Year 1 PV (M)913.28922.12930.96
Year 2 PV (M)977.10996.111,015.30
Year 3 PV (M)1,036.261,066.651,097.63
Year 4 PV (M)1,090.991,133.861,177.98
Year 5 PV (M)1,141.501,197.841,256.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,663.7536,374.5638,152.25
Equity Value (M)39,822.8841,691.1343,630.50
Shares Outstanding (M)1,906.401,906.401,906.40
Fair Value$20.89$21.87$22.89
Upside / Downside43.86%50.61%57.62%

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