Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd. (000768.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.14 - $4.64$3.86
Multi-Stage$4.22 - $4.62$4.42
Blended Fair Value$4.14
Current Price$26.87
Upside-84.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.86%2.19%0.110.120.160.140.210.160.120.080.130.16
YoY Growth---0.80%-26.10%9.15%-32.10%28.99%40.42%49.39%-42.20%-14.29%70.51%
Dividend Yield--0.48%0.53%0.61%0.50%0.87%1.03%0.67%0.45%0.55%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,072.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)358.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)713.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)214.41134.0180.40
Cash Retained (M)713.50713.50713.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-214.41-134.01-80.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)499.09579.50633.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,769.642,769.642,769.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate10.07%10.07%10.07%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$3.14$3.86$4.64
Upside / Downside-88.31%-85.63%-82.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,072.051,084.811,097.721,110.791,124.011,137.381,171.51
Payout Ratio33.44%44.76%56.07%67.38%78.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)358.55485.52615.46748.42884.471,023.651,083.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.07%10.07%10.07%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)436.74441.10445.46
Year 2 PV (M)498.02508.01518.10
Year 3 PV (M)544.77561.25578.05
Year 4 PV (M)579.13602.60626.77
Year 5 PV (M)602.92633.62665.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,029.319,489.009,967.23
Equity Value (M)11,690.8912,235.5812,801.17
Shares Outstanding (M)2,769.642,769.642,769.64
Fair Value$4.22$4.42$4.62
Upside / Downside-84.29%-83.56%-82.80%

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