Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanfang Black Sesame Group Co., Ltd. (000716.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.58 - $0.92$0.73
Multi-Stage$1.19 - $1.30$1.24
Blended Fair Value$0.99
Current Price$6.10
Upside-83.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.99%4.17%0.130.100.120.130.020.130.180.090.120.09
YoY Growth--29.42%-16.82%-6.88%543.41%-85.25%-24.71%109.31%-26.35%33.95%1.77%
Dividend Yield--2.04%1.93%1.39%3.77%0.63%3.11%3.43%1.62%1.44%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)42.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.565.353.21
Cash Retained (M)2.572.572.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.56-5.35-3.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.99-2.78-0.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)748.85748.85748.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Fair Value$0.58$0.73$0.92
Upside / Downside-90.49%-87.95%-84.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)42.8042.8142.8142.8142.8142.8144.10
Payout Ratio93.99%93.19%92.39%91.59%90.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.2339.8939.5539.2138.8738.5340.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.81%6.81%6.81%
Growth Rate-1.00%0.00%1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)36.9737.3537.72
Year 2 PV (M)33.9834.6735.36
Year 3 PV (M)31.2232.1833.15
Year 4 PV (M)28.6929.8731.08
Year 5 PV (M)26.3627.7229.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)732.06769.78809.05
Equity Value (M)889.28931.56975.50
Shares Outstanding (M)748.85748.85748.85
Fair Value$1.19$1.24$1.30
Upside / Downside-80.53%-79.61%-78.64%

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