Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) Inc. (000661.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.57 - $111.05$70.78
Multi-Stage$33.85 - $37.02$35.41
Blended Fair Value$53.09
Current Price$130.00
Upside-59.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS72.97%41.01%4.551.081.220.760.540.290.340.390.260.14
YoY Growth--319.75%-10.88%60.08%42.02%82.04%-13.74%-12.35%50.87%87.25%-6.02%
Dividend Yield--4.65%0.88%0.75%0.45%0.12%0.11%0.21%0.42%0.47%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)959.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)938.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)191.81119.8871.93
Cash Retained (M)938.60938.60938.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-191.81-119.88-71.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)746.79818.72866.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.94403.94403.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.852.032.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.852.032.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.902.082.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.57$70.78$111.05
Upside / Downside-62.64%-45.55%-14.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)959.051,021.391,087.781,158.491,233.791,313.991,353.41
Payout Ratio2.13%19.71%37.28%54.85%72.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.45201.27405.52635.46893.591,182.591,251.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)181.88183.60185.32
Year 2 PV (M)331.12337.43343.80
Year 3 PV (M)468.88482.34496.05
Year 4 PV (M)595.80618.71642.27
Year 5 PV (M)712.49746.91782.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,383.4411,933.2612,504.13
Equity Value (M)13,673.6114,302.2514,954.22
Shares Outstanding (M)403.94403.94403.94
Fair Value$33.85$35.41$37.02
Upside / Downside-73.96%-72.76%-71.52%

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