Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Jinling Mining Co., Ltd. (000655.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.43 - $6.92$5.57
Multi-Stage$10.39 - $11.45$10.91
Blended Fair Value$8.24
Current Price$8.89
Upside-7.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%6.75%0.190.050.050.100.000.000.000.010.010.00
YoY Growth--284.43%0.00%-50.00%10,003.45%0.00%-100.00%-81.45%-7.01%403.97%-97.96%
Dividend Yield--2.86%0.79%0.70%1.36%0.01%0.00%0.03%0.17%0.11%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)274.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.9134.3220.59
Cash Retained (M)177.97177.97177.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.91-34.32-20.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.06143.66157.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.36595.36595.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Fair Value$4.43$5.57$6.92
Upside / Downside-50.21%-37.31%-22.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)274.55271.90269.28266.69264.12261.58269.43
Payout Ratio35.18%46.14%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.57125.46153.78181.54208.75235.42249.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Year 1 PV (M)116.93118.12119.32
Year 2 PV (M)133.59136.33139.09
Year 3 PV (M)146.99151.53156.17
Year 4 PV (M)157.53164.06170.79
Year 5 PV (M)165.59174.21183.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,465.065,749.536,045.72
Equity Value (M)6,185.686,493.776,814.27
Shares Outstanding (M)595.36595.36595.36
Fair Value$10.39$10.91$11.45
Upside / Downside16.87%22.69%28.75%

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