Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited (000524.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.80 - $1.13$0.96
Multi-Stage$1.30 - $1.42$1.36
Blended Fair Value$1.16
Current Price$13.82
Upside-91.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.120.250.300.030.010.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-99.96%-51.70%-16.95%961.24%91.67%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.52%4.14%3.59%0.28%0.10%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.1010.066.04
Cash Retained (M)26.8626.8626.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.10-10.06-6.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.7716.8020.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)668.80668.80668.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.80$0.96$1.13
Upside / Downside-94.23%-93.03%-91.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.4879.6778.8878.0977.3176.5378.83
Payout Ratio66.62%71.30%75.97%80.65%85.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.6256.8159.9362.9865.9668.8872.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)51.2051.7352.25
Year 2 PV (M)48.6949.6950.69
Year 3 PV (M)46.1247.5549.00
Year 4 PV (M)43.5445.3547.21
Year 5 PV (M)40.9843.1245.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)635.94669.06703.54
Equity Value (M)866.48906.48948.03
Shares Outstanding (M)668.80668.80668.80
Fair Value$1.30$1.36$1.42
Upside / Downside-90.63%-90.19%-89.74%

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