Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Hefei Department Store Group Co.,Ltd (000417.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.05 - $1.44$1.24
Multi-Stage$1.95 - $2.15$2.05
Blended Fair Value$1.65
Current Price$5.92
Upside-72.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.60%-3.43%0.130.130.120.120.140.210.200.200.140.20
YoY Growth--5.57%4.77%4.17%-16.49%-33.69%1.85%4.26%36.25%-27.84%5.91%
Dividend Yield--2.38%2.72%2.33%2.54%3.04%4.16%3.72%2.66%1.63%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.8219.2611.56
Cash Retained (M)139.28139.28139.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.82-19.26-11.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.47120.02127.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)779.85779.85779.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate-5.43%-4.43%-3.43%
Fair Value$1.05$1.24$1.44
Upside / Downside-82.31%-78.97%-75.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154.08147.26140.73134.50128.54122.85126.53
Payout Ratio9.60%25.68%41.76%57.84%73.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.8037.8258.7777.8095.02110.56117.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate-5.43%-4.43%-3.43%
Year 1 PV (M)34.3834.7535.11
Year 2 PV (M)48.5849.6150.66
Year 3 PV (M)58.4660.3462.25
Year 4 PV (M)64.9267.7170.58
Year 5 PV (M)68.6772.3876.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,244.391,311.591,381.66
Equity Value (M)1,519.401,596.371,676.51
Shares Outstanding (M)779.85779.85779.85
Fair Value$1.95$2.05$2.15
Upside / Downside-67.09%-65.42%-63.69%

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