Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Colorpak Indonesia Tbk (CLPI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,947.68 - $2,965.54$2,424.86
Multi-Stage$2,678.82 - $2,926.89$2,800.55
Blended Fair Value$2,612.71
Current Price$1,280.00
Upside104.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.41%18.61%128.2861.4071.2389.4256.5755.1163.89102.9039.4163.03
YoY Growth--108.92%-13.79%-20.34%58.07%2.65%-13.75%-37.90%161.12%-37.48%170.66%
Dividend Yield--12.22%6.11%7.54%8.60%6.94%11.43%9.33%11.06%3.57%7.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65,613.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42,648.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,965.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,122.658,201.664,921.00
Cash Retained (M)22,965.0122,965.0122,965.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,122.65-8,201.66-4,921.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,842.3514,763.3518,044.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)306.26306.26306.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share32.1448.2058.92
LTM Dividend per Share139.25139.25139.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share32.1448.2058.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend171.39187.46198.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Fair Value$1,947.68$2,424.86$2,965.54
Upside / Downside52.16%89.44%131.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65,613.2766,777.4167,962.2069,168.0270,395.2371,644.2173,793.53
Payout Ratio65.00%70.00%75.00%80.00%85.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42,648.2646,743.8950,971.4355,334.2659,835.8664,479.7968,259.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)42,214.2842,633.1843,052.08
Year 2 PV (M)41,571.5142,400.6543,237.97
Year 3 PV (M)40,756.5741,981.9543,231.65
Year 4 PV (M)39,801.5141,405.0143,056.48
Year 5 PV (M)38,734.3440,694.6942,733.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)617,348.18648,592.40681,089.03
Equity Value (M)820,426.39857,707.88896,400.84
Shares Outstanding (M)306.26306.26306.26
Fair Value$2,678.82$2,800.55$2,926.89
Upside / Downside109.28%118.79%128.66%

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