Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hong Leong Bank Berhad (5819.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.23 - $411.24$236.84
Multi-Stage$50.74 - $55.57$53.11
Blended Fair Value$144.97
Current Price$19.60
Upside639.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.30%7.22%0.710.630.580.530.350.500.480.460.410.37
YoY Growth--12.73%8.66%9.02%53.06%-30.42%4.20%4.36%12.20%9.55%5.63%
Dividend Yield--3.60%2.91%2.96%2.58%1.83%3.30%2.91%2.22%2.57%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,273.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)574.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,699.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)854.69534.18320.51
Cash Retained (M)3,699.433,699.433,699.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-854.69-534.18-320.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,844.743,165.253,378.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,061.272,061.272,061.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.541.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.541.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Fair Value$96.23$236.84$411.24
Upside / Downside390.95%1,108.35%1,998.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,273.444,539.314,821.715,121.695,440.325,778.785,952.15
Payout Ratio13.43%28.75%44.06%59.37%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)574.011,304.852,124.413,040.894,063.185,200.905,505.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Year 1 PV (M)1,207.621,219.091,230.57
Year 2 PV (M)1,819.581,854.331,889.41
Year 3 PV (M)2,410.462,479.842,550.54
Year 4 PV (M)2,980.803,095.743,213.97
Year 5 PV (M)3,531.113,702.133,879.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,642.8897,129.65101,788.59
Equity Value (M)104,592.45109,480.78114,552.78
Shares Outstanding (M)2,061.272,061.272,061.27
Fair Value$50.74$53.11$55.57
Upside / Downside158.89%170.99%183.54%

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