Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings Co. Limited (0570.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.91 - $1.31$1.11
Multi-Stage$1.41 - $1.55$1.48
Blended Fair Value$1.29
Current Price$2.02
Upside-35.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.050.060.050.040.100.100.060.050.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-23.67%14.01%27.47%-56.94%4.75%51.75%28.94%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.34%1.99%1.30%1.33%2.97%2.38%1.81%1.52%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)652.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)652.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)130.5281.5848.95
Cash Retained (M)652.60652.60652.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-130.52-81.58-48.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)522.08571.03603.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,035.805,035.805,035.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.91$1.11$1.31
Upside / Downside-54.87%-45.23%-35.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)652.61646.08639.62633.22626.89620.62639.24
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.00116.30230.27341.94451.36558.56591.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)105.48106.55107.63
Year 2 PV (M)189.41193.29197.22
Year 3 PV (M)255.09262.98271.03
Year 4 PV (M)305.39318.05331.09
Year 5 PV (M)342.75360.60379.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,903.436,210.836,530.91
Equity Value (M)7,101.547,452.307,817.06
Shares Outstanding (M)5,035.805,035.805,035.80
Fair Value$1.41$1.48$1.55
Upside / Downside-30.19%-26.74%-23.15%

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