DDM Analysis: 0570.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.91 - $1.31	$1.11
Multi-Stage	$1.41 - $1.55	$1.48
Blended Fair Value	$1.29
Current Price	$2.02
Upside	-35.98%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.05	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.10	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	-23.67%	14.01%	27.47%	-56.94%	4.75%	51.75%	28.94%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	1.34%	1.99%	1.30%	1.33%	2.97%	2.38%	1.81%	1.52%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	652.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	652.60

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	130.52	81.58	48.95
Cash Retained (M)	652.60	652.60	652.60
(-) Cash Required (M)	-130.52	-81.58	-48.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	522.08	571.03	603.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,035.80	5,035.80	5,035.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.11	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	9.15%	9.15%	9.15%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.91	$1.11	$1.31
Upside / Downside	-54.87%	-45.23%	-35.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	652.61	646.08	639.62	633.22	626.89	620.62	639.24
Payout Ratio	0.00%	18.00%	36.00%	54.00%	72.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.00	116.30	230.27	341.94	451.36	558.56	591.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.15%	9.15%	9.15%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	105.48	106.55	107.63
Year 2 PV (M)	189.41	193.29	197.22
Year 3 PV (M)	255.09	262.98	271.03
Year 4 PV (M)	305.39	318.05	331.09
Year 5 PV (M)	342.75	360.60	379.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,903.43	6,210.83	6,530.91
Equity Value (M)	7,101.54	7,452.30	7,817.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,035.80	5,035.80	5,035.80
Fair Value	$1.41	$1.48	$1.55
Upside / Downside	-30.19%	-26.74%	-23.15%

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Sector

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Holdings Co. Limited (0570.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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