Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sichuan Shengda Forestry Industry Co., Ltd (002259.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.40 - $0.55$0.47
Multi-Stage$0.55 - $0.61$0.58
Blended Fair Value$0.53
Current Price$4.08
Upside-87.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.64%-16.69%0.020.050.020.020.000.010.010.070.100.06
YoY Growth---50.30%183.11%-29.47%801.51%-79.73%-12.77%-78.51%-31.46%66.06%-58.38%
Dividend Yield--0.97%1.36%0.46%0.78%0.06%0.57%0.56%1.14%1.03%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.386.493.89
Cash Retained (M)39.8839.8839.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.38-6.49-3.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.5033.3935.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)752.93752.93752.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate11.36%11.36%11.36%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Fair Value$0.40$0.47$0.55
Upside / Downside-90.26%-88.38%-86.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.9051.2850.6650.0549.4448.8550.31
Payout Ratio23.17%36.54%49.90%63.27%76.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.0318.7325.2831.6637.8943.9646.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.36%11.36%11.36%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Year 1 PV (M)16.6516.8216.99
Year 2 PV (M)19.9720.3920.80
Year 3 PV (M)22.2422.9323.63
Year 4 PV (M)23.6624.6425.65
Year 5 PV (M)24.4025.6727.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)308.97325.09341.88
Equity Value (M)415.89435.54455.96
Shares Outstanding (M)752.93752.93752.93
Fair Value$0.55$0.58$0.61
Upside / Downside-86.46%-85.82%-85.16%

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