DDM Analysis: 002259.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.40 - $0.55	$0.47
Multi-Stage	$0.55 - $0.61	$0.58
Blended Fair Value	$0.53
Current Price	$4.08
Upside	-87.10%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.64%	-16.69%	0.02	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.07	0.10	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-50.30%	183.11%	-29.47%	801.51%	-79.73%	-12.77%	-78.51%	-31.46%	66.06%	-58.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.97%	1.36%	0.46%	0.78%	0.06%	0.57%	0.56%	1.14%	1.03%	0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	51.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)	39.88

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.38	6.49	3.89
Cash Retained (M)	39.88	39.88	39.88
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.38	-6.49	-3.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)	29.50	33.39	35.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	752.93	752.93	752.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.06	0.06	0.06
WACC / Discount Rate	11.36%	11.36%	11.36%
Growth Rate	-2.21%	-1.21%	-0.21%
Fair Value	$0.40	$0.47	$0.55
Upside / Downside	-90.26%	-88.38%	-86.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	51.90	51.28	50.66	50.05	49.44	48.85	50.31
Payout Ratio	23.17%	36.54%	49.90%	63.27%	76.63%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.03	18.73	25.28	31.66	37.89	43.96	46.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	11.36%	11.36%	11.36%
Growth Rate	-2.21%	-1.21%	-0.21%
Year 1 PV (M)	16.65	16.82	16.99
Year 2 PV (M)	19.97	20.39	20.80
Year 3 PV (M)	22.24	22.93	23.63
Year 4 PV (M)	23.66	24.64	25.65
Year 5 PV (M)	24.40	25.67	27.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	308.97	325.09	341.88
Equity Value (M)	415.89	435.54	455.96
Shares Outstanding (M)	752.93	752.93	752.93
Fair Value	$0.55	$0.58	$0.61
Upside / Downside	-86.46%	-85.82%	-85.16%

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Ticker

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Sector

Sichuan Shengda Forestry Industry Co., Ltd (002259.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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