Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$777.19 - $915.66$858.11
Multi-Stage$888.00 - $974.82$930.60
Blended Fair Value$894.36
Current Price$74.49
Upside1,100.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.47%11.26%0.770.760.760.550.500.440.380.330.280.24
YoY Growth--0.28%0.00%39.45%8.57%13.35%18.39%12.26%21.57%12.83%-7.38%
Dividend Yield--0.76%0.64%0.73%0.53%0.53%0.72%0.67%0.75%0.70%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,265.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)769.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,496.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)853.00533.13319.88
Cash Retained (M)3,496.003,496.003,496.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-853.00-533.13-319.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,643.002,962.883,176.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)926.33926.33926.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.853.203.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.853.203.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.684.034.26
WACC / Discount Rate-7.90%-7.90%-7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$777.19$858.11$915.66
Upside / Downside943.35%1,051.98%1,129.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,265.004,542.234,837.475,151.915,486.785,843.426,018.72
Payout Ratio18.03%32.42%46.82%61.21%75.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)769.001,472.792,264.823,153.594,148.345,259.085,567.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-7.90%-7.90%-7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,584.071,599.081,614.10
Year 2 PV (M)2,619.992,669.892,720.27
Year 3 PV (M)3,923.784,036.414,151.19
Year 4 PV (M)5,551.445,764.935,984.52
Year 5 PV (M)7,569.627,935.238,314.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)801,327.89840,032.33880,218.07
Equity Value (M)822,576.78862,037.88903,002.99
Shares Outstanding (M)926.33926.33926.33
Fair Value$888.00$930.60$974.82
Upside / Downside1,092.11%1,149.29%1,208.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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