Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$433.33 - $915.66$858.11
Multi-Stage$137.48 - $150.59$143.91
Blended Fair Value$501.01
Current Price$74.49
Upside572.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.47%11.26%0.770.760.760.550.500.440.380.330.280.24
YoY Growth--0.28%0.00%39.45%8.57%13.35%18.39%12.26%21.57%12.83%-7.38%
Dividend Yield--0.76%0.64%0.73%0.53%0.53%0.72%0.67%0.75%0.70%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,265.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)769.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,496.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)853.00533.13319.88
Cash Retained (M)3,496.003,496.003,496.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-853.00-533.13-319.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,643.002,962.883,176.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)926.33926.33926.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.853.203.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.853.203.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.684.034.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$433.33$858.11$915.66
Upside / Downside481.73%1,051.98%1,129.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,265.004,542.234,837.475,151.915,486.785,843.426,018.72
Payout Ratio18.03%32.42%46.82%61.21%75.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)769.001,472.792,264.823,153.594,148.345,259.085,567.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,371.241,384.241,397.24
Year 2 PV (M)1,963.282,000.682,038.42
Year 3 PV (M)2,545.242,618.312,692.76
Year 4 PV (M)3,117.253,237.133,360.44
Year 5 PV (M)3,679.443,857.164,041.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,670.92120,209.57125,960.20
Equity Value (M)127,347.38133,307.09139,490.73
Shares Outstanding (M)926.33926.33926.33
Fair Value$137.48$143.91$150.59
Upside / Downside84.56%93.19%102.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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