Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Axcen Photonics Corporation (6530.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.80 - $38.67$29.72
Multi-Stage$40.32 - $44.21$42.23
Blended Fair Value$35.97
Current Price$60.00
Upside-40.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.71%0.00%1.191.491.090.990.990.990.990.880.880.00
YoY Growth---20.00%36.36%10.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%12.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.80%4.12%4.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.687.924.75
Cash Retained (M)11.0811.0811.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.68-7.92-4.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.603.166.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.9833.9833.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.090.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.541.541.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.090.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.491.631.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Fair Value$22.80$29.72$38.67
Upside / Downside-62.00%-50.47%-35.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.4064.2165.0465.8866.7367.5969.61
Payout Ratio82.52%84.02%85.51%87.01%88.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.3153.9555.6257.3259.0660.8364.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)49.9950.4950.99
Year 2 PV (M)47.7548.7149.68
Year 3 PV (M)45.6046.9848.39
Year 4 PV (M)43.5445.3047.12
Year 5 PV (M)41.5643.6745.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,141.791,199.861,260.27
Equity Value (M)1,370.231,435.011,502.31
Shares Outstanding (M)33.9833.9833.98
Fair Value$40.32$42.23$44.21
Upside / Downside-32.80%-29.62%-26.32%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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