DDM Analysis: 6530.TWO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.80 - $38.67	$29.72
Multi-Stage	$40.32 - $44.21	$42.23
Blended Fair Value	$35.97
Current Price	$60.00
Upside	-40.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	3.71%	0.00%	1.19	1.49	1.09	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.88	0.88	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.00%	36.36%	10.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	12.50%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.33%	2.80%	4.12%	4.74%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	63.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	52.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.08

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.68	7.92	4.75
Cash Retained (M)	11.08	11.08	11.08
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.68	-7.92	-4.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-1.60	3.16	6.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	33.98	33.98	33.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.05	0.09	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	1.54	1.54	1.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.05	0.09	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.49	1.63	1.73
WACC / Discount Rate	6.85%	6.85%	6.85%
Growth Rate	0.29%	1.29%	2.29%
Fair Value	$22.80	$29.72	$38.67
Upside / Downside	-62.00%	-50.47%	-35.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	63.40	64.21	65.04	65.88	66.73	67.59	69.61
Payout Ratio	82.52%	84.02%	85.51%	87.01%	88.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	52.31	53.95	55.62	57.32	59.06	60.83	64.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.85%	6.85%	6.85%
Growth Rate	0.29%	1.29%	2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	49.99	50.49	50.99
Year 2 PV (M)	47.75	48.71	49.68
Year 3 PV (M)	45.60	46.98	48.39
Year 4 PV (M)	43.54	45.30	47.12
Year 5 PV (M)	41.56	43.67	45.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,141.79	1,199.86	1,260.27
Equity Value (M)	1,370.23	1,435.01	1,502.31
Shares Outstanding (M)	33.98	33.98	33.98
Fair Value	$40.32	$42.23	$44.21
Upside / Downside	-32.80%	-29.62%	-26.32%

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MRBK	Meridian Corporation	2.85%	$0.49	27.85%
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BKH	Black Hills Corporation	2.84%	$1.98	50.60%
GABC	German American Bancorp, Inc.	2.84%	$1.11	40.35%
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TSBK	Timberland Bancorp, Inc.	2.84%	$1.00	27.24%
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CWT	California Water Service Group	2.83%	$1.22	53.25%
EBIX	Ebix, Inc.	2.83%	$0.08	46.85%
CMS-PB	Consumers Energy Company	2.82%	$2.17	62.27%
EPRT	Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.	2.82%	$0.85	70.58%
GPK	Graphic Packaging Holding Company	2.82%	$0.43	24.85%
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CCNE	CNB Financial Corporation	2.81%	$0.72	35.05%
ORRF	Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.	2.81%	$0.98	26.05%
TXNM	TXNM Energy, Inc.	2.80%	$1.65	86.75%
STC	Stewart Information Services Corporation	2.79%	$1.95	54.56%
CVLY	Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc.	2.77%	$0.67	28.98%
KKRS	KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4.	2.77%	$0.49	7.61%
SHBI	Shore Bancshares, Inc.	2.77%	$0.48	28.28%
HNNA	Hennessy Advisors, Inc.	2.76%	$0.27	21.11%
HONE	HarborOne Bancorp, Inc.	2.76%	$0.33	51.05%
KMT	Kennametal Inc.	2.76%	$0.80	65.12%
PNM	PNM Resources, Inc.	2.76%	$1.12	57.65%
HWC	Hancock Whitney Corporation	2.75%	$1.77	31.35%
YOU	Clear Secure, Inc.	2.75%	$0.95	50.89%
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MTDR	Matador Resources Company	2.74%	$1.19	18.96%
OFG	OFG Bancorp	2.74%	$1.12	25.13%
VLO	Valero Energy Corporation	2.74%	$4.53	93.65%
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AVT	Avnet, Inc.	2.71%	$1.34	48.46%
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PBHC	Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc.	2.71%	$0.38	26.39%
TRIN	Trinity Capital Inc.	2.71%	$0.41	20.50%
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Axcen Photonics Corporation (6530.TWO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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