DDM Analysis: UPS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$136.48 - $324.49	$201.52
Multi-Stage	$118.41 - $129.02	$123.62
Blended Fair Value	$162.57
Current Price	$83.53
Upside	94.63%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.07%	8.60%	6.34	6.31	6.01	4.04	3.96	3.75	3.54	3.26	3.11	2.97
YoY Growth	-	-	0.50%	5.04%	48.79%	1.87%	5.64%	6.08%	8.66%	4.84%	4.67%	6.72%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.77%	4.28%	3.10%	1.88%	2.33%	4.02%	3.09%	3.11%	2.89%	2.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,502.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,395.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	107.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,100.40	687.75	412.65
Cash Retained (M)	107.00	107.00	107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,100.40	-687.75	-412.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-993.40	-580.75	-305.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	851.00	851.00	851.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-1.17	-0.68	-0.36
LTM Dividend per Share	6.34	6.34	6.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-1.17	-0.68	-0.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.17	5.66	5.98
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%	8.60%	8.60%
Growth Rate	4.63%	5.63%	6.63%
Fair Value	$136.48	$201.52	$324.49
Upside / Downside	63.39%	141.26%	288.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,502.00	5,811.83	6,139.10	6,484.80	6,849.97	7,235.70	7,452.78
Payout Ratio	98.06%	96.44%	94.83%	93.22%	91.61%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,395.00	5,605.17	5,821.90	6,045.27	6,275.33	6,512.13	6,893.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.60%	8.60%	8.60%
Growth Rate	4.63%	5.63%	6.63%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,112.61	5,161.47	5,210.33
Year 2 PV (M)	4,843.64	4,936.67	5,030.58
Year 3 PV (M)	4,587.50	4,720.29	4,855.63
Year 4 PV (M)	4,343.61	4,512.06	4,685.36
Year 5 PV (M)	4,111.41	4,311.67	4,519.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	77,770.86	81,559.01	85,493.36
Equity Value (M)	100,769.62	105,201.17	109,794.92
Shares Outstanding (M)	851.00	851.00	851.00
Fair Value	$118.41	$123.62	$129.02
Upside / Downside	41.76%	48.00%	54.46%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener