DDM Analysis: UNP

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$114.01 - $177.14	$143.20
Multi-Stage	$161.69 - $177.09	$169.25
Blended Fair Value	$156.22
Current Price	$236.37
Upside	-33.91%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.34%	7.01%	5.36	5.29	5.27	4.67	4.38	4.33	3.83	3.31	3.13	3.91
YoY Growth	-	-	1.26%	0.44%	12.82%	6.63%	1.08%	13.01%	15.99%	5.48%	-19.84%	43.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.27%	2.17%	2.62%	1.71%	1.99%	3.07%	2.24%	2.46%	2.96%	4.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7,052.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,228.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,824.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,410.40	881.50	528.90
Cash Retained (M)	3,824.00	3,824.00	3,824.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,410.40	-881.50	-528.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,413.60	2,942.50	3,295.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	599.63	599.63	599.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.03	4.91	5.50
LTM Dividend per Share	5.38	5.38	5.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.03	4.91	5.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend	9.41	10.29	10.88
WACC / Discount Rate	8.86%	8.86%	8.86%
Growth Rate	0.56%	1.56%	2.56%
Fair Value	$114.01	$143.20	$177.14
Upside / Downside	-51.76%	-39.42%	-25.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7,052.00	7,162.16	7,274.04	7,387.67	7,503.07	7,620.28	7,848.89
Payout Ratio	45.77%	54.62%	63.46%	72.31%	81.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,228.00	3,911.93	4,616.44	5,342.00	6,089.11	6,858.25	7,260.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.86%	8.86%	8.86%
Growth Rate	0.56%	1.56%	2.56%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,558.14	3,593.52	3,628.90
Year 2 PV (M)	3,819.19	3,895.52	3,972.61
Year 3 PV (M)	4,019.76	4,140.88	4,264.40
Year 4 PV (M)	4,167.56	4,335.82	4,509.12
Year 5 PV (M)	4,269.47	4,486.01	4,711.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)	77,120.49	81,031.99	85,100.60
Equity Value (M)	96,954.61	101,483.74	106,186.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	599.63	599.63	599.63
Fair Value	$161.69	$169.25	$177.09
Upside / Downside	-31.59%	-28.40%	-25.08%

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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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